It is expected that approximately 80 000 Covid-19 cases will be recorded in the Western Cape when the pandemic reaches its peak.
These and other scenarios were discussed by a panel consisting of Western Cape Premier Alan Winde, Health MEC Nomafrench Mbombo and Dr Keith Cloete, the head of the Western Cape Government Department of Health during a live broadcast on Tuesday 21 April. Measures to address the expected rise in Covid-19 cases were also made public.
Dr Cloete reported that the Western Cape Government Health Department has put various measures in place to ensure that the public health sector will be equipped to deal with the expected rise in patients and the need for beds in both acute and intensive units when the pandemic is at its peak. Statistics released by National Government indicate that the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to reach its peak in South Africa in July.
Cloete reported that the number of imported Covid-19 cases, as result of international travelling, has decreased while local or community transmissions have increased. According to one of the graphics shown to illustrate this, six cases in the Overstrand have been classified as imported, three as import-associated infections and three as a result of local transmission.Hot spotsIn recent weeks healthcare field workers have gone into communities across the country to conduct Covid-19 screening and testing. In his address on Tuesday evening, President Cyril Ramaphosa revealed that more than 2 million people had been screened in communities and more than 15 000 referred for clinical testing.
Measures to track where the highest growth of cases in the province have been recorded, said Cloete, have been put in place. Witzenberg was identified as a hot spot where the number of Covid-19 cases jumped from 0 – 25 within approximately five days. Cloete reported that this “bushfire” originated from two or three nodes – places where a large amount of people work. Prisons in the Breede Valley were identified as another hot spot.
He explained that protocols and policy guidelines were developed to address such incidents after similar incidents at supermarkets. This allows businesses such as factories and supermarkets to close temporarily in order to deep clean and sanitise the workplace.
Cloete added that teams including public health specialists specialising in epidemiology are currently doing an analysis and will give a breakdown on what are called clusters of cases by the end of the week.
The importance of providing healthcare workers with the necessary personal protective equipment was also highlighted. It was revealed that three doctors in public healthcare and five at private hospitals as well as four public healthcare nurses and 12 private healthcare workers have tested positive for Covid-19. Thirteen general workers in public healthcare and 10 in private healthcare also tested positive. This includes pharmacists, porters and security guards.
Premier Winde reported that the province has PPE worth R44 million in stock with more having been ordered.Providing sufficient hospital beds for Covid-19 patientsProjections created by the provincial health department indicate that 90% of those who test positive for Covid-19 will recover without having to be admitted to hospital. Despite this the provincial health department estimates that there will be a shortfall of 1 000 beds in acute care units and a further shortfall of 750 beds in intensive care.
The biggest risk, said Cloete, lies in the shortfall of beds in critical care and in order to mitigate this shortfall the department will establish field hospitals. He added: “We are also in advanced negotiations with private sector hospital groups that have double the ICU capacity we have in the public health sector.”
Cloete also revealed that the health department has made the following provisions to deal with the pandemic: . 70 000 respirators on hand with a further 2.9 million ordered.. 2 million surgical masks. Seven million more have been ordered.. 4 000 PPE kits on hand and 50 000 on order.. 432 ventilators on hand and 100 on order.. Seven testing and triage sites across the province have already been completed. It is expected that 10 more will be completed in May.. Strengthening 146 facilities across the province to stream, test and triage Covid-19 cases.. 1 300 intermediate care beds planned for mild cases.. 150 additional ICU beds for severe cases.
In closing Premier Winde emphasised that the public has a crucial role to play in preventing the further spread of the disease and going into further lockdown by adhering to measures such as social distancing, sanitising and adhering to lockdown regulations.
“This needs to be embedded in our behaviour over the next six to eight months,” he stated.
